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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Communication Plan |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When many people need to be informed in parallel and messages would otherwise arrive unevenly or too late, a Communication Plan orders communication reliably. Channels, audiences, and cadences interlock so important information doesn't get lost. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 45-90 min | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-6 | 4-12 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Communication Plan, Channel Matrix, Message Cadence | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | CommunicationStakeholdersDeliveryPlanning | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |