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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumMediumHigh
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item2-4 h15-45 min2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
1-82-61-83-10
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesBarrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action BacklogPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesEvent Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
Root causeSafetyIncident
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline
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