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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 45-90 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-6 | 1-5 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |