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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 45-90 min | 30-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | DecisionTreeOptions | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |