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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h | 30-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 1-10 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | SensemakingDecisionRationale | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |