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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Decision Making OODA Loop |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h | 15-60 min je Zyklus | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 1-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Situation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action Updates | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | SensemakingDecisionRationale | DecisionChangeLearningStrategy | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |