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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h | 2-8 h | 60-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-8 | 4-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | SensemakingDecisionRationale | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations | ComplexitySensemakingDecision |