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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations After-Action Review |  Operations Failure Mode and Effects Analysis |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | After missions or project phases with unclear outcomes, the method makes visible what actually happened and what can be learned from it. It separates course, effect, and causes so experience turns into solid improvement. | For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 20-45 min | 2-6 h | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 3-10 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Lessons learned, Action items, Event summary | FMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation Actions | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LearningOperationsImprovement | RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |