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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |