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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Agile Bucket System |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 2-6 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |