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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
A3 Problem-Solving workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
A3 Problem Solving
Incident Command workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Incident Command
Game Day workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Game Day
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together.During an acute incident with several people involved, the method creates a clear leadership and communication structure. It reduces chaos when fast coordination and clean situational awareness are both needed at once.In preparing for rare incidents, the method tests response capability under controlled conditions. It shows where assumptions about stability, roles, and recovery are too optimistic.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumMediumHigh
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item45-90 minAs neededHalber Tag
Participantsdifferent
1-82-54-155-20
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesA3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause AnalysisIncident Log, Action Tracker, Stakeholder UpdatesSimulation Notes, Gaps List, Updated Runbooks
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations
IncidentOperationsReliability
ResilienceOperationsIncident
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