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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
A3 Problem-Solving workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
A3 Problem Solving
Game Day workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Game Day
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together.In preparing for rare incidents, the method tests response capability under controlled conditions. It shows where assumptions about stability, roles, and recovery are too optimistic.When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHighLow
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item45-90 minHalber Tag30-120 min
Participantsdifferent
1-82-55-202-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesA3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause AnalysisSimulation Notes, Gaps List, Updated RunbooksObservation Notes, Improvement Ideas
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations
ResilienceOperationsIncident
LeanObservationProcessOperations
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