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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
A3 Problem-Solving workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
A3 Problem Solving
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item15-30 min30-120 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
1-82-62-62-5
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesRoot cause notes, CountermeasuresObservation Notes, Improvement IdeasA3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause Analysis
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
LeanObservationProcessOperations
LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations
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