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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Pretotyping |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | Pretotyping clarifies whether a customer problem and solution idea create enough real demand. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence, and captures the result as a pretotyping sketch, test setup, and conversion data. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 1-5 Tage | Stunden bis wenige Tage | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-12 | Nutzertraffic | 1-4 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Pretotyping sketch, Test setup, Conversion data, Go or no-go decision | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationDemandMVP | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |