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Criterion
Paper illustration of Three Horizons with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Three Horizons
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of a Learning Card with four fields for hypothesis, observation, insight, and action.
Product Discovery
Learning Card
Purposedifferent
Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMediumLow
Timedifferent
Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ1-5 Tage1-5 Tage25-40 min
Participantsdifferent
3-12NutzertrafficNutzertraffic1-5
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource planInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning DecisionLearning Card with evidence and next action
Tagsno overlap
StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning
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