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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 20–45 min | 45-90 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-12 | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |