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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Growth A/B Testing |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 3-12 | 2-8 | 1-6 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |