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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 1-4 Wochen | 45-60 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-12 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |