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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Growth A/B Testing |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 3-12 | 6-30 Experten | 1-6 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |