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Criterion
Paper illustration of Three Horizons with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Three Horizons
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration of a Test Card with four fields for hypothesis, test, metric, and success threshold.
Product Discovery
Test Card
Purposedifferent
Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric.The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLowLow
Timedifferent
Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ45-90 min30-60 min20-35 min
Participantsdifferent
3-122-81-51-5
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource planAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanCompleted Experiment Canvas, Success MetricTest Card with a pre-set threshold
Tagsno overlap
StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
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