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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 45-60 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 3-12 | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |