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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 45-60 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-12 | 2-8 | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |