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Criterion
Paper illustration of Three Horizons with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Three Horizons
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHighLow
Timedifferent
Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ45-60 min1-4 Wochen45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-122-81-62-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource planAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summaryAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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