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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Theory of Change |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Theory of Change translates a desired impact into a traceable chain of change. It makes assumptions, intermediate goals, and measurement points visible before a program is rolled out at scale. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-6 h | 30-90 min | 60-120 min | 60-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 1-10 | 3-10 | 4-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Theory of Change Map, Assumptions, Outcome Measures | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ImpactOutcomesSystems thinkingStrategy | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ComplexitySensemakingDecision |