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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Theory of Change |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Theory of Change translates a desired impact into a traceable chain of change. It makes assumptions, intermediate goals, and measurement points visible before a program is rolled out at scale. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-6 h | 1-3 h | 2-4 h | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 2-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Theory of Change Map, Assumptions, Outcome Measures | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | ImpactOutcomesSystems thinkingStrategy | StrategyAnalysisPlanning | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |