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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Systems Mapping |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Systems Mapping arranges elements, relationships, and boundaries so a complex field becomes legible at a glance. The overview stabilizes the overall picture before detail work or steering begins. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-12 | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | System Map, Dependencies, Leverage Points | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | Systems thinkingMappingBoundariesChange | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |