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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Systems Mapping |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Systems Mapping arranges elements, relationships, and boundaries so a complex field becomes legible at a glance. The overview stabilizes the overall picture before detail work or steering begins. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h | 15-45 min | 45-90 min | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-12 | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | System Map, Dependencies, Leverage Points | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | Systems thinkingMappingBoundariesChange | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |