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Criterion
Paper illustration of System Dynamics Simulation with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
System Dynamics Simulation
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Design sheets and interface cards connect to jointly written pseudocode with highlighted unresolved questions.
Architecture
ARID (Active Reviews for Intermediate Designs)
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
System Dynamics Simulation makes assumptions about time, delay, and feedback testable through experiments. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a simulation model and scenario reports.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.ARID examines how well developers can work with a technical design. It focuses on a part of the system that can still be revised, between the architecture overview and the detailed specification.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowMediumMedium
Timedifferent
Mehrere Tage bis Wochen45-90 min2–4 h review as a planning range; preparation and evaluation additional45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
1-5 Modellierende, Stakeholder asynchron2-8Designers, developers as users, and facilitation2-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Simulation Model, Scenario ReportsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanPrioritized development tasks, Jointly produced code or pseudocode, Observed difficulties and open design questions, Proposed design revisionsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
Systems thinkingDynamicsSimulationAnalysis
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
ArchitectureEngineeringFeedbackValidationTasks
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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