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Criterion
Paper illustration for Story Points.
Agile
Story Points
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When teams want to rate complexity rather than hours, it creates a shared, relative scale. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Point Estimates, Reference Stories, and Velocity Data.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHighLow
Timedifferent
laufend, 1-5 min je Item60-120 min1-4 Wochen45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-92-86-30 Experten2-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Point Estimates, Reference Stories, Velocity DataConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
EstimationAgileMeasurement
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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