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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-5 Tage | 1-4 h | 45-90 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | Nutzertraffic | 3-8 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | RiskDecisionSensemaking | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |