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Criterion
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMediumMedium
Timedifferent
1-5 Tage20–45 min1-5 Tage45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
NutzertrafficSmall cross-functional groupNutzertraffic2-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning DecisionAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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