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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-5 Tage | 2-4 h | 60-120 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | Nutzertraffic | 3-8 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |