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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-5 Tage | 60-120 min | 2-4 h | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |