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Criterion
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMediumMedium
Timedifferent
1-5 Tage45-90 min1-5 Tage45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
Nutzertraffic2-8Nutzertraffic2-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning DecisionAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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