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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-5 Tage | 45-60 min | 1-4 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | RiskDecisionSensemaking | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |