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Criterion
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of ICE Scoring with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
ICE Scoring
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When ideas need sorting quickly, it condenses impact, confidence, and effort into one compact score. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as an ICE table and top-ideas list.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLowLow
Timedifferent
1-5 Tage45-60 min30-60 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
Nutzertraffic2-82-82-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingICE Table, Top Idea ListAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
PrioritizationScoringGrowthDecision
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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