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| Criterion |  Delivery Shape Up |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Shape Up helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow. It makes work boundaries and decisions explicit and captures results as pitches, bet-table decisions, and hill charts. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 6 Wochen Cycle + 2 Wochen Cool-Down | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-4 pro Pitch | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Pitches, Bet-table decisions, Hill charts, Cooldown outcomes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | PlanningDeliveryAutonomy | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
