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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking Wardley Mapping |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | Wardley Mapping makes visible where an offering stands today and where it can evolve. The method connects user need, value chain, and evolution stages into a strategic basis for platform, build, or buy decisions. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-3 h | 20-45 min | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 2-10 | 1-10 | 2-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Wardley Map, Strategic Options, Evolution Notes | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | StrategySystems thinkingDynamics | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns |