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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 30-90 min | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 60-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 1-10 | 3-12 | 4-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | ComplexitySensemakingDecision |