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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Soft Systems Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Soft Systems Methodology helps explore unclear or politically charged problems systematically. Instead of forcing a quick answer, the method builds a shared understanding of perspectives and room for action. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 30-90 min | 60-120 min | 0.5-3 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 1-10 | 3-10 | 5-15 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Rich Picture, Root Definitions, Conceptual Models, Change Agenda |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Soft systemsComplexitySensemakingSystems thinking |