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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 30-90 min | 30-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 1-10 | 1-6 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | DecisionTreeOptions | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |