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| Criterion | ![]() Business Strategy Scenario Planning | ![]() Business Strategy Three Horizons | ![]() Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test | ![]() Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | Half day | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 3-12 | 3-8 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tags1 shared | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |



