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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 1-3 h | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 3-12 | 1-8 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | SensemakingDecisionRationale | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |