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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking Theory of Change |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | Theory of Change translates a desired impact into a traceable chain of change. It makes assumptions, intermediate goals, and measurement points visible before a program is rolled out at scale. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 2-6 h | 60-120 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 4-12 | 3-10 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Theory of Change Map, Assumptions, Outcome Measures | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ImpactOutcomesSystems thinkingStrategy | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |