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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking Theory of Change |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | Theory of Change translates a desired impact into a traceable chain of change. It makes assumptions, intermediate goals, and measurement points visible before a program is rolled out at scale. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 2-6 h | 2-4 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 4-12 | 3-8 | 3-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Theory of Change Map, Assumptions, Outcome Measures | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ImpactOutcomesSystems thinkingStrategy | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ChangeDecisionStrategy |