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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking Theory of Change |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | Theory of Change translates a desired impact into a traceable chain of change. It makes assumptions, intermediate goals, and measurement points visible before a program is rolled out at scale. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 2-6 h | 60-120 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 4-12 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Theory of Change Map, Assumptions, Outcome Measures | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ImpactOutcomesSystems thinkingStrategy | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | StrategyAnalysisPlanning |