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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking Soft Systems Methodology |  Systems Thinking Theory of Change |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | Soft Systems Methodology helps explore unclear or politically charged problems systematically. Instead of forcing a quick answer, the method builds a shared understanding of perspectives and room for action. | Theory of Change translates a desired impact into a traceable chain of change. It makes assumptions, intermediate goals, and measurement points visible before a program is rolled out at scale. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 0.5-3 Tage | 2-6 h | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 5-15 | 4-12 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Rich Picture, Root Definitions, Conceptual Models, Change Agenda | Theory of Change Map, Assumptions, Outcome Measures | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | Soft systemsComplexitySensemakingSystems thinking | ImpactOutcomesSystems thinkingStrategy | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |