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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking Soft Systems Methodology |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | Soft Systems Methodology helps explore unclear or politically charged problems systematically. Instead of forcing a quick answer, the method builds a shared understanding of perspectives and room for action. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 0.5-3 Tage | 60-120 min | 60-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 5-15 | 3-10 | 4-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Rich Picture, Root Definitions, Conceptual Models, Change Agenda | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | Soft systemsComplexitySensemakingSystems thinking | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ComplexitySensemakingDecision |