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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking Soft Systems Methodology |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | Soft Systems Methodology helps explore unclear or politically charged problems systematically. Instead of forcing a quick answer, the method builds a shared understanding of perspectives and room for action. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 0.5-3 Tage | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 5-15 | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Rich Picture, Root Definitions, Conceptual Models, Change Agenda | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | Soft systemsComplexitySensemakingSystems thinking | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingDecisionRationale |