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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Growth A/B Testing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-5 Tage | 45-60 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation |